President Obama wants a health care reform bill on his desk by the August recess. As time continues to tick by, it is beginning to seem less likely. Obama has said "“Inaction is not an option. And for those naysayers and cynics who think that this is not going to happen, don't bet against us.”
Well, people are betting against him on the website intrade.com. If you click on this link you will see the "contract" that shows the intrade market predicts a 39% chance of health care reform passing this year. Intrade.com is like the stock market, except instead of stocks it trades things like "will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad win the Iranian election" or "will Harry Potter gross over $70 million." It did a pretty good job predicting the election results last year, so we'll see if the market is right about health care reform as well.
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